Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 2.697001 2.884446 3.085315 3.317787 3.580966 3.871531 4.219210
2025-05-25 2.408536 2.658043 2.940285 3.287273 3.708246 4.210539 4.868267
2025-06-01 2.222127 2.502605 2.831404 3.252723 3.789869 4.469411 5.425965
2025-06-08 2.100736 2.404207 2.770293 3.255718 3.901382 4.761888 6.058155
2025-06-15 2.019352 2.343634 2.744819 3.293480 4.052610 5.116542 6.833536
2025-06-22 1.912686 2.241818 2.656371 3.236164 4.062233 5.265579 7.318055
2025-06-29 1.818551 2.149001 2.571506 3.173784 4.053972 5.380988 7.763244
2025-07-06 1.728385 2.055734 2.479310 3.092467 4.007438 5.427269 8.092043
2025-07-13 1.693443 2.032385 2.478353 3.138140 4.152764 5.795917 9.098580
2025-07-20 1.666736 2.017889 2.487537 3.197563 4.323325 6.229860 10.362790
2025-07-27 1.642517 2.004976 2.497309 3.257300 4.499029 6.699623 11.873109
2025-08-03 1.597489 1.961125 2.460405 3.242519 4.548251 6.941110 12.932548
2025-08-10 1.552305 1.915911 2.420278 3.221563 4.587683 7.176213 14.098067
2025-08-17 1.507309 1.869145 2.375594 3.190321 4.605896 7.371998 15.253354
2025-08-24 1.465090 1.824567 2.331859 3.157389 4.617249 7.554676 16.469847
2025-08-31 1.435383 1.796558 2.311198 3.160237 4.693946 7.893570 18.435111
2025-09-07 1.416177 1.782725 2.310865 3.196166 4.836094 8.411002 21.514719
2025-09-14 1.375450 1.736221 2.258822 3.141627 4.797242 8.486916 22.801882
2025-09-21 1.335777 1.690065 2.205607 3.082234 4.743789 8.518648 23.937516
2025-09-28 1.293721 1.639286 2.143595 3.004754 4.648218 8.429229 24.418271
2025-10-05 1.282650 1.633702 2.151249 3.048279 4.802550 9.027439 29.454465
2025-10-12 1.275034 1.632838 2.166005 3.104879 4.990222 9.769598 37.079848
2025-10-19 1.267645 1.631957 2.180517 3.161743 5.185312 10.596998 48.320099